Trading Analysis - 11th April 2018


12 April 2018

Following on from the midday analysis here we get the full day analysis below.

The failed tree shake at 8:30 and the large sell during the 11am auction are previously covered. After 11am the nett trade position continues to grow and the share price rises rapidly return to the strength they showed pre-11.

Around 17.0p there were larger sells uncovered - on a number of occasions these (delayed reported) largish sells were also followed by (delayed reported) 250K trades at the same price. Following on from the observations during the Erongo and Darwin warrant overhangs I believe that these are inter-Market Maker trades - transfers of the newly acquired shares from the MM that acquired them, to the one that needs them. These 250K quantities have therefore been excluded from the MM nett trade position, which despite a degree of rebalancing between noon and 2pm, continued to grow in the afternoon.

At the end of the day the Market Maker nett trade position ended with the Market Makers still needing 1 million shares. In this situation they would normally walk the price back down to acquire these shares at lower prices than they just got for them. For this to happen they would need to be confident that buying would not actually increase if they hold the SP back, or even lower it. Given that there were almost 370 trades during the day, double the previous day, which was already much busier than usual, I suspect that they will not come to this conclusion just yet. 

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