Trading Analysis - 16th Nov 2018


16 November 2018


New day, (slightly) new colour scheme - hopefully to make the buys and sells slightly more distinguishable when it get very busy. There's already 5x 100K Sells today as compared with only 2 for the whole of yesterday, plus a 250K Sell at 8:20 and then a clutch of £50K / £70K Sells just before 9AM.

Overall it looks like back to the same pattern of 100K and 250K/300K/500K Sells being sold into the market at a relatively controlled rate - not enough to flood it. The 9AM sequence looks more like some kind of PI top-slicing, which has served to push the SP back down to 48p-ish.


In the earlier analysis I neglected to spot that the 2x100K Sells at 8:02:15 were precise duplicates of one another - continuing yesterday's observation of duplicates. As a result the second sell is treated as an Inter-Market Maker transfer that does not have an impact on the nett trading position. A lot of the other 100K trades today come in closely timed pairs - however these are often at different prices and so may be rollovers (i.e. one Buy and one Sell) rather than Inter-MM hops.

After 11am the nett trade position returns close to equilibrium, and the trading bands seem to settle down around 48.10p, which, if it were maintained, would be a new SP day end record, despite the evident calmness of the trading today.

End of Day    

A significant number of late reported trades had some impact on the overall day's trading position. Two further 250K trades were reported, one of which was a duplicate of the existing 250K Sell at 8:20:22. There was also a further 250K Sell reported at 8:14:52. 

The 33,333 / 66,667 pair of Sells, both at 9:42:23 are clearly related and meant to deceive anyone on the lookout for 100K Sells (there's 6 others by the way) - of course such deception is wasted as one 100K sell has negligible impact on the day's dynamics - between 10 and 4pm the trading is very stable, suggesting that the Market Makers are not looking to close a short position.

It is only at around 5-to-4 that there is what appears to be a brief attempt to drive the price down, though the net result is that another 500K shares are sold. I would not be surprised next monday to see a 500K Sell at around 47.25p timed at around 15:55 appearing. There is no trading evidence of any external short attempt and this dip may have just been a short term detour so that warrant shares can be taken by the Market Makers at early black friday discount prices.

For further information on this see the article this weekend about the Wogen warrants, exercised on the 12th Nov,  released to the market today. This is the last of the BMN warrants so we shall be keenly observing the price dynamics in the coming months for any changes in market behaviour.


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