Trading Analysis - 26th Nov 2018


26 November 2018


Quiet. 0.66M Buys vs 0.52M Sells, nothing over 100K on either side. 

Almost too quiet, you know how it gets in films just before something critical happens. Everyone, including the MMs, watching and waiting for what we know is inevitable.

End of Day

Delayed trades make more sense of the trading around 8:30am - there is a sequence of 3x 75K sells, highlighted in yellow at decreasing prices. The 225K shares injected via these trades are rapidly absorbed by buyers and the SP returned to its starting point at 10am. If this was an attempted short it was a pretty lame one.

Buys outnumbered sell by a factor of about 2-to-1 for the rest of the day with the price paid for Sells steadily increasing until around half past two at which point the first of todays significant Sells appeared (125K). This was followed by a 100K Sell dropped in around half an hour later and then another 125K Sell just after 4pm. 

The Market Makers appear to have survived another day without news wrecking what I believe to be their current 5M short position, but equally today they appear to have made no inroads into that short exposure. Remember that there are now seven Market Makers and perhaps only one is risking a short right now - today they may have just sat tight, allowing the others to simply churn a few trades and tread water with the share price.

If news arrives this week they may be hoping that buyers do not feel sufficiently inspired to turn up and buy shares in large quantities. Given todays long overdue coverage in the Financial Times that hope may becoming more and more forlorn as each day passes. Nobody can say I did not warn them.

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