Trading Analysis - 26th Sept 2018


26 September 2018


Strong buying as usual first thing - followed by a quick retrace by those whose only research may have been the hearing of the phrase 'sell on news'. This was quickly over and the nett trading deficit turned into a surplus (more Buys than Sells) around 9am. This was a pretty frantic period as shown in the detail chart below. Hopefully I have got the Accumulation-Distribution line right (the purple one) - it is quite hard in the period of rapid change around the first drop - everywhere else there is pretty good separation of Buys and Sells.

By 10am there was a surplus of more than 1M more Buys than Sells - this apparent surplus, plus the lack of any further duplicate pair trades for either today or yesterday suggests that there are many further delayed Sells (expected to be warrant pre-sells) to be reported. I suspect that today is going to be the busiest trading day on record (in terms of number of trades) - and tomorrow may be no different.

End of Day

It would appear that a significant number of PI Buys were not reported contemporaneously - at the end of the day - the nett trade position shows 2.5M more Buys than Sells at 10AM - at 1 oclock this was only showing 1.2M more Buys than Sells. Furthermore this nett surplus of Buys survived at this level for the next 6 hours and was only partially compensated by (conservatively estimated Sells at 31.0p) in the last half hour of trading plus the after hours period.

An additional 400K sell was reported late for the 25th - this has been incorporated in these charts and shows the apparent nett long position growing also on that day (the MMs appeared to acquire more shares than they sold.)

No further duplicate pair trades have been reported in the last 2 days, since the analysis on the 24th suggested that the second block of warrants (from Wogen) were now being tapped into and a long market maker position established. These may yet appear but if they don't and the warrants are subsequently reported as being exercised then it would be a big coincidence that the duplicate trade behaviour was curtailed just after the point at which it was hypothesized.

We shall see if further delayed trades appear for this or previous days - these may suggest the use of warrants via the the presence of duplicate trades or if not that the increase in SP value in the last few days has yielded sufficient organic selling to feed the PI's demand for shares to Buy. If this is the case then the Market Makers do not need to dip into their long position and the margin on it grows as the SP does. 

The 425 trades today is a record for this stock, as is the closing price of 31.0p.


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