Trading Analysis - 28th Jan 2019


28 January 2019

End of Day

After Friday's misleadingly low end day auction price of 37.60p it is hardly surprising that the SP ticked up very soon after opening, this despite a 99,999 trade in the opening auction at 37.50p. We've marked this as a Sell however it is not clear that Market Makers have picked up these shares - being in the auction it is of course possible that another PI with Direct Market Access could have picked up this bargain. Still we'll count it as a Sell so that we're not ever accused of overstating the Buys.

A couple of usefully sized Buys before 8:30 lifted the Ask to 38.5p - then some strange messing about with 30K blocks of shares at 38.50p and 38.20p - this was subsequently explained by mywineman who said that these trades had been a Bed & ISA pair that had previously been messed up by his broker, reversed off at 8:29 and then put through again at 8:44. I don't see the reason for them to have to reverse and then essentially redo exactly the same trades but maybe there is something they got wrong behind the scenes so had to do the trades a second time around. No matter, the Sell at 38.20p and Buy at 38.50p have no resultant effect on the nett trade position, which by 9AM had reached an excess of 315,000 more Buys than Sells.

Evidently Mr 99,999 came back for the 9AM auction as he managed to dispose of another 50,001 shares at 37.60p at that point - probably not to a market maker though as the effective Buy price moved up above 38.00p soon after. A tight series of largish Sells just before 10AM also did little to dampen buying which continued pretty relentlessly all the way through to noon. A rollover pair of 100K trades from Knuttie at a quarter to twelve appeared right at the point that the spread was minimised - he's evidently watching very carefully.

Bit of a pause for lunch but then a 50K Buy at just after 1PM took the nett trade position over 450K for the first time in the day. Possibly Mr 99,999 returned for the 2PM auction as there was another 100K Sell at that point, followed by what appears to be another rollover. A couple more rollovers appear to show up just before the end of normal trading was signalled by a not particular representative closing auction price of 39p.

Buys (107) continue to outnumber Sells (36), as they have done for weeks. The day ends with an excess of more than 430,000 more Buys than Sells. If the 250K shares that appeared to be snapped up in the auctions are not actually bought by MMs then this figure should more appropriately read 680,000. Our daily average since the start of 2019 is an excess of 401,000 more Buys than Sells.

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