Trading Analysis - 29th Jan 2019


29 January 2019

End of Day

Rather hockey-stick like. A slowish start with fairly balanced and quiet trading before 10am. Then things seemed to kick on a little - with a number of 50K and 100K sized trades up to 11:15AM. These don't seem to change the balance of trading or the trade position, Bid or Ask, so would appear to be likely to be rollovers.

50K and 51.784K sized Buys just before noon seemed to up the ante a little as the nett trade position moved to exceed 200,000 more Buys for the first time in the day. There then followed almost pure buying for 2 hours, raising this excess to just over 1/3rd of a Million just before 2pm. Despite a few small Sells appearing Buying continued to dominate in the run up to 3pm.

A tight sequence of chunkyish Buys tipped the nett trade position to an excess of over 545K at 3:13PM - and the uptick in Bid just prior to this seemed to unlock a significant Sell at this point of 300K. Despite this it seems the appreciating SP drew in further buyers, possibly already primed by the prospect of imminent news and the possibility that a selling overhang may be close to ending, and these buys rapidly encouraged the Ask up to 42p. 

It seems our newly activated seller has been encouraged by the increase of price offered of over 40p and at 7 minutes to 4 we see the first duplicated pair Sell - 100K at 40.5p. Just over 30 minutes later we see another duplicated pair trade - 250K again at 40.5p, nestled amongst what appears to be a tight clutch of balanced rollover trades.

Todays 2.012M Buys and 1.567M Sells yield an excess of 446K Buys, yet again in line with the average excess since the start of this year of 403,700.

Time will tell whether the move up today corresponds to the removal of a share selling overhang or is simply yet another amuse bouche before the main course that is likely to be served up this or next week.

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