Trading Analysis - 31st July 2018


1 August 2018

Following on from Monday's analysis and the revealing of a 1.75M sell after hours one is naturally interested to see what effect this may have had on Tuesday trading. Once again trading started very actively, with the SP moving strongly above 25.7p within the first two minutes :

Again the Market Makers took a little advantage of this enthusiasm, slightly spiking those that bought before 8:05, when they dropped the price to buy back to 25.3p. Despite some clunky attempts to manipulate the Bid it is clear what the pattern of trades is - all Buys before a single sell at 25.2p. Roughly an hour in and the Market Makers had sold 400,000 more shares than they had bought, but once again buying continued without relent.

This continued until a quarter to two when the nett trading position exceeded 800K - evidently at this point the Market Makers concluded that they were not going to be getting any more shares by keeping the Bid where it was and also started to charge higher prices for shares. This may signal the point that they ran out of the 1.75M stock that they had managed to procure at 25.0p the previous day. 

Again a little spiking of Buyers when the Ask moved up - and this leads to the obvious suggestion:- do not wait until the Ask moves up to Buy but look at what the Bid is doing or the Buy prices paid, that is the time to jump in.

Again another last-half-hour rally which pushed the closing price to a new record of 25.70p. The nett trading position at the very end of the day finished not far off the position at 2 o'clock, which may have corresponded to the point that Monday's stock of 1.75M shares was used up.

Thus we might conclude that the MMs ended the day with a neutral position and may not expect to see delayed buys reported in the post 2pm period. Unless of course if they've managed to persuade their seller to let them have some more cheap stock right at the time that the SP is reaching new highs - crazy, I know, but stranger things have happened.

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