Trading Analysis - 8th Nov 2018


8 November 2018


Two different stories today - first the spike up on initial buying pressure, held in check by the three highlighted Sells - 100K, 100K, 248K.

Then after 8.30 the inevitable walk down with a series of 6x 50K sells (also highlighted), which despite apparently suppressing the nett trading position to below -500K (i.e. half a million more Sells than Buys) nevertheless still manages to lead to a price paid for shares which is now steadily recovering from the minimum reached at 8:50am.

It looks like the MMs still want your shares, despite the rather persistent selling of 50K blocks around that time. Last year you could have got a quarter of a million shares for the same price as each one of these 50K blocks - back then such selling would have had a big impact on the SP. Now it doesn't.


Bid is rising surprisingly smoothly - spread tightening again as 40p is approach.

End of Day    

Those watching at a quarter past four will have been rocked by the earth shattering sight of the SP plunging by a full half penny, something they may have not been familiar with in the recent past. So what goes on ?

I mentioned previously that the day appeared to be a game of two halves ; before 10 we got the traditional spike up and then walk back down, after 11 we got something that approached the truncated parabolic trajectory of an egg being thrown at a wall.

After 11am I have highlighted the 6 significant sells, all of 100K that punctuate this trajectory - they are all incredibly regularly spaced and appear to be designed with the intent of slowly and without fanfare applying a downward pressure on the Bid - almost as if someone was trying to walk the price down. Could it really be true ? And if so who ?

Market Maker, Trader or Shorter, or does it not matter ? Either way it looks like those who may have already top-sliced may be in for some buying opportunities quite soon - their only problem is how to know when whoever is selling shares in this way will have run out of road.

Ahhh, but that's always the rub.

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